AGP Executive Report

Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions and wider war fears: Fighting in northern Ethiopia has intensified again, with reports of heavy displacement and claims that Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt are backing Tigray-linked forces—charges all three deny—raising concerns the conflict could spill across the Horn. Tigray offensive and Pretoria deal strain: The renewed clashes are said to have shattered the fragile 2022 Pretoria peace framework, as rebels seize airports and push into Afar and Amhara while federal forces counterattack, including claims around the strategic town of Alamata. Red Sea stakes and insurance costs: War-risk premiums for tankers tied to Red Sea routes have jumped, underlining how instability near Bab el-Mandeb and Assab-linked corridor concerns are hitting regional trade. AFCON build-up in Kenya: Harambee Stars goalkeeper Farouk Shikalo urged the team to treat the 2027 AFCON qualifiers as key preparation, with matches against Eritrea, Guinea and South Africa. Eritrea in sport: Eritrea’s UCI Road Worlds campaign faced visa-related setbacks, while Eritrea’s “Red Sea Camels” are discussed ahead of AFCON qualifiers. Diplomacy and mediation: Qatar’s PM said mediation remains central to its foreign policy, citing past roles including Eritrea–Djibouti. Rights and AI: The Right Livelihood Award honored women rights activists and an Ethiopian-born AI researcher Timnit Gebru for challenging bias and concentrated power.

Ethiopia–Eritrea Tensions: Ethiopia’s army chief Birhanu Jula renewed accusations that Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt back Tigray rebels as fighting spreads beyond Tigray into Afar and Amhara, with Eritrea and others denying the claims. Frontline Developments: Pro-government forces say they captured the strategic town of Alamata south of Mekelle, while Tigray-linked fighters earlier seized airports and advanced toward key towns like Erebti, amid reports of heavy displacement and disrupted communications. Diplomatic Pushback: Egypt’s foreign ministry rejected the allegations as interference, and Sudan also dismissed Ethiopia’s claims, as fears grow that the conflict could widen regionally. Humanitarian Strain: UN officials and aid groups warn civilians are being hit, with strikes and telecom disruptions complicating access and reporting. Eritrea in Sports: Eritrea’s cyclists faced visa-related setbacks at the UCI Road World Championships, while Eritrea’s national football team (the “Red Sea Camels”) prepares for an Afcon qualifier in Egypt due to stadium requirements. US Sanctions Update: Eritrea’s government says the US lifted sanctions, though critics question what it means for ordinary Eritreans and prisoners.

Ethiopia–Eritrea Tensions: Ethiopia’s army chief Birhanu Jula accused Eritrea (along with Sudan and Egypt) of backing Tigray rebels, as fighting spreads and both sides trade denials. Frontline Developments: Pro-government forces say they captured Alamata, a key town south of Mekelle, after rebel offensives seized airports and pushed into Afar and Amhara. Humanitarian Strain: Aid groups warn of worsening conditions, with at least 150,000 displaced reported in Afar and communications disrupted in Tigray. Information War: A drone strike hit Tigrai TV headquarters in Mekelle, knocking the station off air. Red Sea Stakes: Analysts highlight how control around Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea corridor could raise shipping and fuel costs—an issue that directly affects Eritrea’s region. Eritrea at the UN: Eritrea’s foreign minister Osman Saleh delivered statements at the UN General Assembly, including remarks on development rights. Migration Tragedy: Off France, a Channel crossing saw three deaths, including a 10-year-old boy believed to be Eritrean, as overcrowding and risky routes persist. Sports: South Africa’s Bafana Bafana are set to host Eritrea in AFCON qualifying in Egypt due to stadium requirements.

Horn Security & Red Sea: The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is gaining strategic weight as Houthi control expands along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, with reports of moves around Perim and Mocha raising fears of higher oil costs and shipping disruption. Ethiopia–TPLF Escalation: Fighting is intensifying between Ethiopia’s federal forces and the TPLF as the UN General Assembly meets, with Ethiopia’s army chief accusing Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing rebels—claims Eritrea and Egypt deny while Sudan calls the allegations “baseless.” Frontline Developments: Pro-government forces and allied militiamen report capturing Alamata, while TPLF-linked fighters are said to have taken Erebti in Afar; drone strikes hit Tigrai TV in Mekelle and communications disruptions are reported. Regional Fallout: The renewed clashes are said to shatter the 2022 Pretoria peace deal and raise fears of a wider Horn conflict. Eritrea in UN Spotlight: Eritrea’s Minister Osman Saleh Mohammed delivered statements at UNGA81, including on development rights and other existential threats. Human Cost Beyond the Horn: In the Channel, a dinghy capsized with 3 deaths including a 10-year-old boy believed Eritrean, underscoring the deadly migrant route.

Ethiopia–Eritrea Accusations: Ethiopia’s army chief says Eritrea and Sudan are backing Tigray rebels as clashes intensify across Tigray, Afar and Amhara, with the TPLF calling its moves “defensive war” and reporting airport seizures. Drone Attacks & Media Hit: A drone strike damaged the Tigrai TV headquarters in Mekelle, knocking the station off air, as fighting resumes and civilians face renewed displacement fears. Sudan Pushes Back: Sudan’s army rejects Ethiopia’s claim it supports opposition groups, warning it won’t tolerate threats to sovereignty and accusing Ethiopia of RSF support from Ethiopian territory. UN Warns of Wider War: The UN says escalating violence risks a return to full-scale conflict and urges de-escalation, amid reports of drone use and harm to civilians. Eritrea in Diplomatic Spotlight: Eritrea’s foreign minister met counterparts at the UNGA, including Egypt and Sudan, focusing on regional security and Red Sea concerns. US Sanctions Lifted on Eritrea: The United States lifted sanctions on Eritrea, a move Eritrea welcomed as a remedial step. Culture & Identity: Eritrean and Ethiopian communities marked Meskel and other seasonal rituals, even as conflict disrupts travel and daily life.

Eritrea–US Ties: The United States lifted sanctions on Eritrea, including measures tied to President Isaias Afwerki’s ruling party and the Eritrean military, with Asmara welcoming the move as a corrective step. Horn of Africa Security: Ethiopia’s northern war fears surged again as Tigray forces seized airports and fighting spread into Afar and Amhara; a drone strike hit Tigrai TV and the UN warned the 2022 peace deal could unravel. Regional Accusations: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea, Egypt and Sudan of backing armed groups against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, while Eritrea denied the claims. Red Sea Pressure: Analysts linked the wider Red Sea crisis to piracy and Houthi attacks, stressing the need for stronger regional maritime strategy. Diplomacy in Asmara: Eritrea’s foreign minister met counterparts at the UNGA, including Egypt and Sudan, and reiterated positions on sea-level rise and pandemic preparedness. Sports & Culture: AfCON qualifiers kicked off with Bafana Bafana beating Guinea 2-1, while Eritreans marked World Pharmacists Day in Asmara.

Ethiopia–Tigray Crisis: Fighting has reignited in northern Ethiopia, with the TPLF and a new seven-group alliance launching offensives that have spread into Afar and Amhara, shattering the 2022 Pretoria peace deal; residents in Mekelle report panic buying and fear of renewed blockades as airports are seized and flights disrupted. Eritrea Accusations & Red Sea Stakes: Ethiopia’s army chief says Eritrea is funding and backing armed groups, while Eritrea denies it—amid wider worries that the conflict could draw in regional actors and threaten Red Sea access. Humanitarian & Communications Disruption: Reports point to internet and phone disruptions in Tigray, alongside heavy clashes near Abala in Afar and fighting around Lalibela in Amhara. Diplomacy & Regional Positioning: Eritrea’s UNGA delegation, led by Foreign Minister Osman Saleh, held talks with multiple countries and reiterated positions on pandemic preparedness and sea-level rise. Culture & Language: The OED added East African terms like azmari and berbere, reflecting growing global recognition of regional English usage. Health Sector: World Pharmacists Day was marked in Asmara, with National Pharmacy Week set for 28 Sept–4 Oct. Sports: Pitso Mosimane says he wants Bafana Bafana to build depth like South Africa’s Springboks as AFCON qualifiers continue, including a match against Guinea and Eritrea.

Ethiopia–Tigray Crisis: Fighting has flared again in northern Ethiopia, with clashes spreading into Afar and Amhara and fears the 2022 Pretoria peace deal is collapsing; reports also point to disrupted internet and phone services, with Ethiopian Airlines suspending flights after airport takeovers. Regional Stakes for Eritrea: Analysts and reporting warn the renewed war could pull in Eritrea as a proxy actor, while UN officials urge restraint and dialogue as drones and civilian harm concerns grow. Eritrea at the UN: On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Eritrea’s Foreign Minister Osman Saleh met counterparts including Algeria, Burkina Faso, Egypt, Sudan, Sweden and Greece, focusing on cooperation and regional security. Health & Policy: World Pharmacists Day was observed in Asmara at national level, with plans for National Pharmacy Week (28 Sept–4 Oct). Red Sea & Maritime Security: A tanker freed from Somali pirate custody, Sibu 1, highlights the wider security pressures around the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Culture & Faith: Millions of Christians in Ethiopia marked Meskel despite the conflict, underscoring how war disrupts travel and family life. Sports: Pitso Mosimane praised standout Bafana Bafana performers after their AFCON qualifier win over Guinea, as preparations continue for the next match.

UN Diplomacy on Health: Eritrea’s FM Osman Saleh told UN leaders that pandemic prevention needs equity, regional manufacturing, technology transfer, and access to medicines—warning unilateral coercive measures weaken health systems. Climate & Sea-Level Threats: Eritrea also urged UN action on sea-level rise, stressing legal stability and protection for vulnerable coastal states with major Red Sea exposure. Ethiopia’s Tigray War Returns: Fighting has reignited across northern Ethiopia after the Pretoria peace deal frayed, with TPLF-linked forces and a new “Alliance for Survival” clashing with federal troops in Tigray, Afar, and Amhara; telecoms and internet disruptions are reported, flights to Tigray’s airports have been suspended, and UN officials warn of civilian harm. Regional Stakes for Eritrea: Analysts and reporting highlight how renewed Tigray conflict could pull in Eritrea and destabilize the wider Horn, amid Red Sea security pressures. Eritrean Opposition in Israel: A report profiles Eritrea’s “Blue Revolution” movement activities in Tel Aviv, linking diaspora organizing with political prisoners and an opposition network abroad. Sports—AFCON Qualifiers: South Africa’s Bafana Bafana open 2027 AFCON qualifiers vs Guinea, while Kenya’s Harambee Stars face camp turmoil ahead of matches including Eritrea.

Tigray Crisis: Fighting has returned to Ethiopia’s Tigray, shattering the 2022 Pretoria peace deal. Clashes spread into Afar and Amhara as TPLF-linked forces seize airports and launch attacks, while Ethiopia’s military reports heavy losses and says the violence is escalating into “full-blown war.” Communications Blackout: Internet and phone services were disrupted across northern Ethiopia, with reports that TPLF ordered telecoms shutdowns—sparking fears of a repeat of the 2020–2022 blockade. UN Alarm: The UN says it is “particularly troubled” by reports of drone use and harm to civilians, urging restraint and dialogue. Regional Stakes for Eritrea: Analysts warn the renewed war could destabilize the Horn and pull Eritrea back into a wider conflict. Somalia Piracy Update: Puntland freed the Eritrean-flagged tanker Sibu 1 and arrested pirates after a two-day operation. Eritrea in Diplomacy: Eritrean Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf met counterparts from South Africa, Namibia, Nigeria, and Eritrea during UNGA activities. Sports (Eritrea-linked): South Africa’s Bafana Bafana begin AFCON qualifiers vs Guinea, with Eritrea in the same group; coach Pitso Mosimane is shaping his formation.

Ethiopia-Tigray War Returns: Fighting has erupted again in northern Ethiopia, with Tigray rebels declaring “full-blown war” after seizing airports and launching attacks into Afar and Amhara, shattering the 2022 Pretoria peace deal; heavy clashes are reported around Abala and near Lalibela, while Ethiopia says it repelled assaults and killed hundreds of TPLF fighters amid reports of internet disruption. Regional Spillover Fears: The renewed offensive comes as a new rebel alliance forms to unseat Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, raising worries the conflict could draw in Eritrea and destabilize the Horn and Red Sea corridor. Eritrea at the UNGA: Eritrea’s Foreign Minister Osman Saleh led a delegation at the UN General Assembly, meeting UN Secretary-General António Guterres and stressing Red Sea security, safe navigation, and respect for littoral states’ interests. Football—Eritrea’s Qualifiers: Eritrea’s AFCON campaign is set to resume with matches against Kenya and South Africa, while regional football coverage highlights wider preparation and discipline pressures around qualifiers.

Ethiopia–Tigray Crisis: Fighting has surged again in northern Ethiopia, with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) declaring “full-blown war” after taking control of airports in Mekelle, Shire and Axum and launching attacks into Afar and Amhara, shattering the 2022 Pretoria peace deal and prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights. Regional Spillover Fears: Analysts and international actors warn the renewed conflict could widen across the Horn of Africa, with the EU and UN calling for de-escalation and restraint as residents stock up on food and cash. Eritrea at the Center of Scrutiny: Reporting and officials’ claims again link Eritrea to the latest escalation, though Asmara denies involvement; the renewed clashes raise fresh concerns for Eritrea’s Red Sea security environment. Diplomacy: Eritrea’s Foreign Minister Osman Saleh led a delegation to the UN General Assembly, meeting UN Secretary-General António Guterres and reiterating Eritrea’s positions on Sudan and Red Sea maritime safety. Security & Sports: Eritrea is tightening security after player disappearances during AFCON qualifiers, ahead of matches versus Kenya and South Africa.

Ethiopia–Tigray Crisis: Tigray rebels say they are in “full-blown” war with Ethiopia’s federal government after seizing control of Mekelle’s airport and other airports, with fighting reported spreading into Afar and Amhara; Air and Humanitarian Impact: Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to Mekelle, Shire and Axum, while the U.S. urged an investigation into a reported drone strike on a Catholic Relief Services aid convoy in Tigray; Regional Spillover Fears: Analysts and officials warn the renewed conflict could pull in neighboring states, with Eritrea again facing allegations of backing armed groups; Eritrea–Diaspora Politics: An Israeli report says Eritrean opposition figures are using a Tel Aviv warehouse to coordinate a global effort to mobilize exiles and seek support from Washington, Jerusalem and Gulf capitals; Sports (AFCON Qualifiers): Eritrea is listed in AFCON 2027 Group D, with qualifiers beginning this week, while Kenya’s Harambee Stars players reportedly boycotted training over unpaid allowances ahead of matches including Eritrea.

Ethiopia–Tigray Crisis: Tigrayan forces seized Mekelle’s Alula Aba Nega airport and Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to Mekelle, Shire and Axum, as the region’s leaders say they have entered a “defensive war” after months of escalating tensions and a breakdown of the 2022 Pretoria peace track. Regional Spillover Fears: Reporting links the renewed fighting to a wider anti-Abiy alliance formed by seven Ethiopian armed groups, with Ethiopia accusing Eritrea of backing parts of the coalition—an allegation Asmara denies—raising concerns of a broader Horn of Africa conflict. Humanitarian Alarm: The US condemned a reported drone strike on a Catholic Relief Services aid convoy in Tigray and urged an investigation, warning that civilians and aid workers must be protected. Eritrea in the Spotlight: Eritrean nationals in South Sudan marked the Golden Jubilee of Revolution School, while Eritrea’s National Athletics Team received a warm welcome in Asmara after winning medals at the 2026 World Championships. Diaspora Politics: An Israeli report says Eritrean opposition figures are organizing from a Tel Aviv warehouse, building an international council and seeking support to challenge Eritrea’s leadership. Sports (AFCON 2027): Qualifiers begin this week, with Eritrea listed in Group D; Kenya’s Harambee Stars players reportedly boycotted training over unpaid allowances ahead of their match against Eritrea.

Ethiopia Crisis Watch: Tigray rebel forces seized control of Alula Aba Nega Airport in Mekelle, prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights to Mekelle, Axum and Shire as fears grow of renewed war. Regional Power Politics: A new Ethiopian anti-government “Alliance for Survival” unites seven armed groups, including the TPLF and Amhara Fano, raising concerns the conflict could spill into the Blue Nile, the Renaissance Dam, Sudan and the Red Sea. Eritrea’s Role in the Debate: Ethiopia’s ambassador to Djibouti argues Asmara has sought to weaken Ethiopia through proxy and political disruption, but says Ethiopia has adapted rather than fractured—while Abiy’s camp alleges Eritrean backing for the alliance. Red Sea Stakes: Analysts warn Red Sea stability is inseparable from Horn of Africa security as Houthi advances near Bab el-Mandeb keep shipping risk elevated. Human Capital & Nation Building: Eritrea’s Revolution School Golden Jubilee programs concluded in Assab, with Eritreans in Egypt also holding commemorations. Sports (Eritrea-linked): Kenya’s Harambee Stars report to camp ahead of their AFCON qualifier vs Eritrea, with Spain-based defender Amos Wanjala named in the squad.

US-Eritrea Sanctions Lift: Eritrea’s Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel welcomed Washington’s move to end emergency-related sanctions, saying it reflects “constructive political goodwill” and could unlock new investment and trade. Red Sea Security: Analysts warn Red Sea stability can’t be separated from the Horn of Africa, as Houthi advances around Bab el-Mandeb raise risks for shipping, insurance, and regional ports. Ethiopia Rebel Alliance: Seven Ethiopian armed groups formed the “Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival,” uniting former enemies and vowing to remove PM Abiy Ahmed—an escalation that could spill into the wider region. Regional Climate Stress: IGAD reports El Niño-linked dry conditions are worsening drought across northern East Africa, including Eritrea, threatening crops, pasture, and water for communities and livestock. Revolution School Jubilee: Golden Jubilee programs for Revolution School in Assab concluded, with awards, cultural performances, and certificates—plus Eritrean events in Egypt. Football (Eritrea-linked): Pitso Mosimane’s Bafana Bafana open AFCON qualifiers vs Guinea on 26 Sept, then face Eritrea on 30 Sept in Cairo.