AGP Executive Report

Ethiopia–Eritrea Tensions: Ethiopia told the UN Security Council it is acting in self-defense, accusing Eritrea of sending troops into northern Ethiopia and supporting insurgents. Eritrea rejected Ethiopia’s claims as aggression linked to Addis Ababa’s demands for Red Sea access. Reports of troop movements and Ethiopian drone strikes have not been independently confirmed, but the accusations raise fears that renewed fighting in Tigray could become a regional war. Diplomatic Breakdown: Relations have been severed after Ethiopia expelled Eritrean diplomats and closed its embassy in Asmara. Eritrea has not confirmed or denied the reported troop crossings. Regional Security: Egypt is reportedly preparing to deploy troops to Somalia under a military cooperation agreement and the African Union mission, adding to shifting security alignments around the Horn of Africa.

Border Crisis: Ethiopia and Eritrea traded accusations of aggression Friday as fighting in Tigray raised fears of a wider war. Addis Ababa says Eritrean troops entered its territory and has asked the UN to intervene; Asmara rejects the claims and says Ethiopia is provoking conflict. Reports of Ethiopian drone strikes on Eritrean forces have also emerged, but details remain difficult to verify. Tigray Fighting: Ethiopian forces have retaken Mekelle after TPLF fighters withdrew, while clashes continue elsewhere. Eritrean troops have been reported in northern Tigray, with one anonymous source estimating 5,000 to 8,000; the scale and purpose of any deployment remain unclear. Red Sea Diplomacy: Earlier this week, President Isaias Afwerki returned from talks in Egypt, where Eritrea, Egypt, Sudan and Somalia backed coastal states’ role in Red Sea governance and called for peaceful solutions to regional disputes.

Border Escalation: Reports say Eritrean troops crossed into Ethiopia’s Tigray region and moved toward Adigrat, where Ethiopian drones reportedly struck military vehicles. The scale and purpose of the deployment remain unclear, and Eritrea has denied its forces are in Ethiopia. Tigray Fighting: Ethiopian federal police have entered Mekelle after TPLF forces withdrew and are asking residents to help establish a new administration. Fighting elsewhere threatens the fragile 2022 peace deal. Regional Tensions: Ethiopia and Eritrea have severed diplomatic ties amid accusations over support for Tigrayan rebels and disputes over Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access. The reported incursion and drone strikes raise fears the renewed fighting could spread beyond Tigray.

Border Tensions: Witnesses and conflict monitors report Eritrean troops crossed into Tigray and moved through Adigrat toward Idaga Hamus. Ethiopian drones reportedly struck the troops, and Addis Ababa has demanded their withdrawal; Asmara denies its forces are in Ethiopia. The reports come as fighting between Ethiopian forces and Tigrayan groups continues, raising fears of a wider conflict after the neighbours severed diplomatic ties. Red Sea Diplomacy: President Isaias Afwerki’s recent talks in Egypt were followed by a joint declaration with Egypt, Somalia and Sudan asserting that Red Sea governance belongs to coastal states. The move adds to regional tensions as Ethiopia presses for sea access.

Border Escalation: Witnesses and local officials report Eritrean troops in Adigrat, with some convoys moving south toward Mekelle as fighting resumes in Tigray. The reports come days after Ethiopia and Eritrea severed diplomatic ties; Asmara has accused Addis Ababa of using a “self-defense” narrative to justify aggression. Regional Diplomacy: Eritrea joined Egypt, Somalia and Sudan in a declaration saying Red Sea governance is the responsibility of coastal states, sharpening a dispute with landlocked Ethiopia over sea access. Former Somali president Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed has warned Mogadishu against being drawn into regional rivalries. Humanitarian Concern: UN officials say looting at aid facilities in Tigray has cost supplies including food, seeds and water pumps, while renewed fighting puts civilians and relief operations at risk.

Border Escalation: Witnesses and a local official say Eritrean troops have been in Adigrat for several days, with convoys carrying heavy weapons reportedly heading south toward Mekelle. Ethiopia’s federal forces and allied militia have meanwhile taken Agula’e, raising fears of a direct clash. Reports of the troop movements have not been independently verified; Eritrea’s information minister rejected Ethiopia’s account of the conflict. Diplomatic Rupture: The reports come days after Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats, and Eritrea severed diplomatic ties. Washington and the EU have urged restraint and renewed dialogue as fighting in Tigray threatens to widen into a regional conflict. Regional Diplomacy: President Isaias Afwerki returned from an Egypt-hosted summit with Somalia and Sudan, where leaders declared Red Sea governance the responsibility of coastal states and called for peaceful solutions to regional disputes.

Tigray War Escalates: Ethiopia’s federal forces and allies say they’ve regained Mekelle after TPLF withdrawal, but drone strikes and artillery exchanges continue, including deadly attacks reported in Adwa and Shiraro near the Eritrean border. Eritrea–Ethiopia Rift Deepens: Ethiopia accuses Eritrea (along with Egypt and Sudan) of backing the TPLF; Eritrea denies the claims and says Addis Ababa is seeking a scapegoat. GERD & Nile Tensions: A new war of words erupts between Egypt and Ethiopia over the GERD, with Ethiopia blaming Egypt for supporting TPLF and Cairo rejecting the allegation; Egypt’s leader reiterates Nile water as an “historical and legal” right. Regional Bloc on Red Sea: At the New Alamein summit, Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan issued a declaration saying Red Sea governance belongs to coastal states and rejecting unilateral actions on Nile water rights. Humanitarian & Migration: UN agencies report more than two-thirds of child arrivals to Europe in 2025 were unaccompanied, with many exploited; meanwhile, aid groups warn of looting and civilian harm amid renewed fighting. Bible Access Crisis: A new global analysis says 100 million Christians in 88 countries can’t freely get a Bible in their own language.

Tigray War Escalates: Drone strikes and artillery exchanges killed at least 17 people in Adwa and Shiraro (near the Eritrean border) as federal forces and Tigrayan fighters traded fire after Mekelle’s fall and TPLF’s reported pullout. Eritrea-Ethiopia Tensions: Ethiopia again accused Eritrea of backing the TPLF; Eritrea denies the charge and says Addis is seeking a scapegoat, as the diplomatic rupture deepens. Regional Alarm: The EU warned that Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions could trigger a wider Horn of Africa conflict, urging immediate de-escalation and full return to the Pretoria ceasefire framework. Alamein Summit Fallout: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan issued a joint declaration in New Alamein calling for peaceful solutions, backing Sudan’s political process, and saying Red Sea governance belongs to coastal states—while rejecting unilateral actions affecting Nile water rights. Ethiopia’s New Term: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was sworn in for a second five-year term, pledging sea access and constitutional changes while fighting continues in Tigray, Amhara and Afar.

Horn of Africa Diplomacy: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan issued a joint declaration in New Alamein calling for political, peaceful solutions as fighting in northern Ethiopia raises fears of wider spillover, with leaders stressing sovereignty, rejecting interference, and backing Sudan’s military-led process. Red Sea & Nile Stakes: The same declaration says Red Sea governance belongs to littoral states and reaffirms freedom of navigation, while also addressing Nile water rights and rejecting unilateral measures; Ethiopia responded by insisting its “legitimate interests” in the Blue Nile (Abay) and Red Sea must be recognized, citing geography and warning against coercive steps. Ethiopia–Tigray Fighting: Airstrikes and artillery hit northwest Tigray near Mekelle, with reports of at least 17 killed as federal forces and TPLF-linked fighters clash; meanwhile, Mekelle is reported under government-aligned control after TPLF said it temporarily moved out. EU Warning: The EU urged immediate de-escalation, warning that renewed violence and rising Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions could trigger a broader regional conflict. Eritrea Focus: Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki met Somalia’s Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in Alamein, underscoring Eritrea’s continued regional engagement amid the diplomatic rupture with Ethiopia. Local Education: World Teachers’ Day was commemorated in Asmara under a theme to upgrade teachers’ capacity, with emphasis on support for the teaching profession.

Red Sea & Nile Diplomacy: Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia closed ranks in El Alamein, issuing a joint declaration on Red Sea governance, freedom of navigation, Somalia’s sovereignty (rejecting Somaliland), and “no harm” rules for transboundary rivers, while rejecting unilateral moves that could affect Nile water uses. Tigray War Escalation: In northern Ethiopia, airstrikes and artillery killed at least 17 near Mekelle as clashes resumed between federal forces and TPLF-linked fighters, raising fears of wider Horn-of-Africa spillover. Mekelle Under Control: Multiple reports say government-aligned forces took over Mekelle after TPLF temporarily withdrew, with communications returning and residents fearing looting and a return to full-scale war. Regional Alliance Signals: The same leaders’ meeting was framed as an emerging bloc shaping Red Sea and Horn security as Ethiopia-Eritrea ties remain severed. Humanitarian & Displacement: About 150,000 people were displaced in northern Afar after fighting ended with federal and Afar forces reclaiming Abala and Erebti. Education Focus: Eritrea marked World Teachers’ Day in Asmara, highlighting teacher capacity-building and support for quality basic education.

El Alamein Diplomacy: Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan issued a joint declaration after a quadrilateral summit in New Alamein, backing Sudan’s unity and Somalia’s sovereignty, rejecting “parallel entities” and interference, and calling for peaceful solutions amid regional tensions. Red Sea & Nile: The leaders agreed Red Sea governance belongs to coastal states and rejected unilateral measures that harm Nile water rights, stressing “no harm” and international law. Tigray Flashpoint: Ethiopia’s federal forces and allied Tigray Peace Force took full control of Mekelle after the TPLF withdrew, restoring communications for residents but raising fresh fears the fighting could “drag on” and spill further. AU Pushback: The African Union clarified it did not intend to blame neighboring states for Ethiopia’s internal developments after Cairo objected to an earlier AU statement. Eritrea in the spotlight: A Reuters profile highlighted Eritrea’s education-to-national-service system, with compulsory military training shaping youth and state security.

Tigray Frontline: Ethiopian federal forces and allied militias have taken control of Mekelle after the TPLF said it temporarily withdrew, restoring communications and raising fears of renewed fighting and looting as security remains thin. Interim Governance: Ethiopia says it is preparing a new interim administration in Tigray and aims for regional elections within months, with new structures built from local levels upward. Eritrea–Ethiopia Rift: The U.S. urged Ethiopia and Eritrea to exercise maximum restraint and return to dialogue as tensions rise, following Ethiopia’s embassy closure in Asmara and expulsions of Eritrean diplomats. Red Sea & Nile Diplomacy: Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia issued the El Alamein Joint Declaration rejecting interference, asserting littoral control over Red Sea governance, and opposing unilateral actions that harm Nile water rights. Regional Pressure: Egypt’s PM reiterated Cairo wants a diplomatic solution to the Nile dam dispute, while leaders also discussed coordination on security and sovereignty amid the Ethiopia crisis. Culture & Community: A “Taste of the Nations” event highlighted Eritrean culture alongside other countries, drawing a sold-out crowd.

Ethiopia–Tigray Frontline: The TPLF says it is withdrawing from Mekelle as Ethiopian federal forces advance, with residents warning of security gaps and possible looting; fighting has also pushed toward key airfields, and reports say the main Mekelle airport has been retaken. US & Diplomacy: Washington urged restraint and dialogue, warning the Horn of Africa can’t handle another full-scale war, as UN Security Council closed consultations are set over northern Ethiopia. Eritrea–Ethiopia Rift: The crisis is deepening the diplomatic breakdown: Ethiopia closed its Asmara embassy and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats, while Eritrea severed ties, amid mutual accusations involving Tigray-linked forces. Regional Summit in Egypt: Egypt is hosting a four-way consultative summit in Alamein with Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan as tensions rise; Egypt also rejected attempts to link Nile water to political pressure. Eritrea’s Outreach: A senior Eritrean delegation is in Egypt for the Alamein Business Forum, meeting Afreximbank to expand financial services. Sports (Eritrea-linked): South Africa’s Bafana Bafana showcased a new attacking trio in a 5-0 win over Eritrea in AFCON qualifying.

Tigray Frontline Update: Tigray rebels are reported to be withdrawing from Mekelle as Ethiopian federal forces advance, with residents warning of security gaps and possible looting; the government also recaptured Alula Aba Nega Airport near the city, a major tactical gain. Diplomatic Break: Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats, prompting Eritrea to sever ties—while Ethiopia and Egypt also traded expulsions—deepening fears the conflict could spill across the Horn. Regional Security Alarm: Analysts and the African Union are warning that the Ethiopia–Eritrea–Egypt rupture could widen amid Sudan’s civil war and Red Sea instability, with officials urging restraint and dialogue. Eritrea in Egypt: President Isaias Afwerki has departed for Egypt for a collective-security summit, and a senior Eritrean delegation joined the Alamein Business Forum, meeting Afreximbank to expand financial cooperation. Red Sea & Nile Pressure: Egypt’s Al-Sisi rejected using Nile water for political leverage and reiterated support for Eritrea’s territorial integrity, as tensions tied to Ethiopia’s wider regional posture continue.

Ethiopia–Eritrea Rift Deepens: Ethiopia says it closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats, accusing Asmara of “hostility” linked to renewed fighting in Tigray; Eritrea responded by severing diplomatic ties, warning of “negative repercussions.” Tigray Front Shifts: AFP reports Tigray rebels are abandoning Mekelle as federal forces advance, with residents warning of security gaps and looting risks while the airport has reportedly been seized. Regional Alarm: The diplomatic breakdown comes as Ethiopia accuses Eritrea (along with Sudan and Egypt) of backing the TPLF-led opposition, while the AU urges Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt to exercise restraint and keep dialogue open to prevent the Horn of Africa from sliding into a wider war. Diplomatic Tit-for-Tat: Egypt also expelled an Ethiopian diplomat in response to Ethiopia’s moves, adding pressure to an already tense Nile and Red Sea landscape. Eritrea–US Talks: A senior Eritrean delegation led by Foreign Minister Osman Saleh met US officials in Washington after US sanctions removal, discussing a new chapter in Eritrea–US relations and cooperation on regional peace and security.

Eritrea–Ethiopia Rift Deepens: Ethiopia ordered the closure of its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats within 48 hours, citing “hostility,” after renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia. Diplomatic Tit-for-Tat: Eritrea immediately severed ties with Addis Ababa, saying it had “no choice but to respond in kind,” while Ethiopia also declared an Egyptian diplomat persona non grata and Egypt retaliated. Regional War Fears: Addis Ababa accuses Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing the Tigray People’s Liberation Front; all deny it. AU Urges Restraint: The African Union Commission called on Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt to de-escalate, keep communication channels open, and resolve differences through dialogue. Conflict Expands Inside Ethiopia: Fighting continues across Tigray, with reports of spread into Amhara and Afar, alongside claims of drone strikes and disrupted communications. Red Sea Security Concern: Analysts warn the diplomatic breakdown could widen instability in the Horn and affect Red Sea shipping amid broader regional threats.